Year 1 - Week 2

Its been a bad week for me - my computer HDD has been wiped by a virus. Fortunately I was able to back up most of my files before I left the Philippines, as well as most of the files produced and updated in the last month of travelling and holidaying. Unfortunately I neglected my portfolio, and as a consequence I didnt take up my Austindo rights - which cost me $500 in actual money, plus more importantly $2500 in opportunity costs. Since the price of gold has increased by some $40/oz in the last week, this stock has soared 40% from 1.1c to 1.5c. And the game is just starting. I paid $500 for the 0.1c right, but forfeited that money when I didnt pay the $5000 in appliocation fees (1c per right), which would have given me 500,000 shares.

ARX is of course unhedged. Its not a good time to buy if you are thinking to buy ARX as traders will be dumping the stock soon as all those speculators that took a stake will be seeking to exit before others. But more upside perhaps. I didnt look at the chart.

Year 1 - Week 1

This is the first posting of a regular weekly posting I will make on my trades and investments in ASX listed stocks. This blog will need to be read in conjunction with some of my others:

1. A Speculators Dream: Here I outline the merits and risks of specific stocks - whether this comprise fundamental or technical analysis.

2. Market Commentary: I will make reference to this blog for the sake of establish general market timing.

The blog starts today - Monday 22nd October 2007 - near the close of a 135point fall in the Australian All Ordinaries Index to 6590pts, which follows a 366point fall in the Dow Jones Index last night. For the record I have $A86,226 in this account, and each quarter I will examine how much profit (loss) I am making (or not :). The stocks in my portfolio are currently:

Based on my assessment of the market I think the ASX and US equities markets are going to perform poorly over the next 3 years. I think you are going to see the value of your portfolios go sideways whilst the value of western currencies fall. The commodity producing countries like Australia, Canada, NZ I think will perform bettr, particularly those with exposure to food output and drought-resistant. Australia might miss out in this respect unless the drought breaks. Stronger food exports would help offset its growing current account deficit, which is currently running at 6.5% of GDP.

Its readily apparent that I have strong exposure to minerals - both copper and gold - but over time I will gradually increase my exposure to gold. I am very bullish on gold and silver, and for the short to medium term positive about copper, but more specifically I like the fundamentals of Matrix Metals (MRX.ASX). See postings at My Speculators Dream blog.