Sunday, October 21, 2007

Year 1 - Week 1

This is the first posting of a regular weekly posting I will make on my trades and investments in ASX listed stocks. This blog will need to be read in conjunction with some of my others:
1. A Speculators Dream: Here I outline the merits and risks of specific stocks - whether this comprise fundamental or technical analysis.
2. Market Commentary: I will make reference to this blog for the sake of establish general market timing.

The blog starts today - Monday 22nd October 2007 - near the close of a 135point fall in the Australian All Ordinaries Index to 6590pts, which follows a 366point fall in the Dow Jones Index last night. For the record I have $A86,226 in this account, and each quarter I will examine how much profit (loss) I am making (or not :). The stocks in my portfolio are currently:

Based on my assessment of the market I think the ASX and US equities markets are going to perform poorly over the next 3 years. I think you are going to see the value of your portfolios go sideways whilst the value of western currencies fall. The commodity producing countries like Australia, Canada, NZ I think will perform bettr, particularly those with exposure to food output and drought-resistant. Australia might miss out in this respect unless the drought breaks. Stronger food exports would help offset its growing current account deficit, which is currently running at 6.5% of GDP.
Its readily apparent that I have strong exposure to minerals - both copper and gold - but over time I will gradually increase my exposure to gold. I am very bullish on gold and silver, and for the short to medium term positive about copper, but more specifically I like the fundamentals of Matrix Metals (MRX.ASX). See postings at My Speculators Dream blog.

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